Will Brahmin Fadnavis lose CM race to himself, and not Shinde?

“I am absolutely sure that my party will not remove me as chief minister because I am a Brahmin. I could be removed for any other reason, like for making wrong decisions or being inefficient. But not for caste,” asserted Devendra Fadnavis, then Chief Minister of Maharashtra, in 2016. As the Maratha agitation in the state raged, doubts swirled about Maharashtra’s second Brahmin CM’s hold on the top chair. Fadnavis held his ground and completed his term at Mumbai’s Mantralaya.
Fast-forward to 2024, after a stint as one of two deputy CMs under Eknath Shinde, Mahayuti’s landslide victory has once again positioned Fadnavis, a Brahmin leader, on the cusp of reclaiming the top job. There is no denying the fact that it was Fadnavis who played the leading role in BJP’s stellar victory in Maharashtra.
Posters have surfaced in support of Devendra Fadnavis as the next Chief Minister, and he has issued a cryptic message, “The real flight of the eagle is yet to come”. It’s clear that he and his supporters have the chief minister’s chair in sight.
But the big question remains. Will he make it?
With the BJP securing 133 of Mahayuti’s 234 seats, will Fadnavis finally be named the Chief Minister, or will he once again have to settle for a deputy’s role to Eknath Shinde, whose Shiv Sena has less than half the seats (57)?
The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance, comprising the BJP, Ajit Pawar’s NCP, and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, has all but sealed a thumping victory over the Congress’ Maha Vikas Aghadi combine in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections.
With the BJP securing 133 of Mahayuti’s 234 seats, Fadnavis’s chances of becoming the Chief Minister appear strong.
However, the decision is not as straightforward as it seems. The coalition dynamics, particularly the need for support from Maratha leader Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction, could complicate Fadnavis’s ascent.
Moreover, the caste dynamics of Maharashtra may keep the Brahmin leader from taking the CM post.
The Maratha community dominated the politics of Maharashtra, with as many as at least 13 CMs belonging to it. The Marathas own over 75% of land in Maharashtra. They control nearly 55% of educational institutions, 70% of cooperatives, a major power centre in the state, and own 86 of the 105 sugar factories in Maharashtra. This dominance comes despite the community making up just over 30% of the state’s population.
In contrast, Brahmins constitute around 10% of Maharashtra’s population.
When Devendra Fadnavis took over as Maharashtra’s chief minister in 2014, it stirred unease among Maratha groups, leading to visible anti-Fadnavis mobilisation across the state. Fadnavis became the second Brahmin CM of Maharashtra, 19 years after Shiv Sena’s Manohar Joshi sat on the high seat in 1995. Back then, the BJP was the junior partner to Bal Thackrey’s Shiv Sena, an equation that now stands reversed.
Maratha agitation leader Manoj Jarange Patil had on multiple occasions shown his opposition to Fadnavis, calling him a “Maratha-hater”.
Patil, during the Maharashtra Assembly poll, even accused Devendra Fadnavis and his Cabinet colleague Chhagan Bhujbal of exerting pressure to stall the resolution of the Maratha reservation issue.
Even Sharad Pawar in 2016 attacked Fadnavis’ Brahmin identity, liking him with Peshwa. The Peshwas were the chief ministers and prime ministers of the Maratha Empire and belonged to the Brahmin caste. It was seen as an attempt to stir Maratha pride against the Brahmin CM.
In 2016, after Fadnavis became the chief minister, Maharashtra saw a massive Maratha agitation for quotas in jobs and education. It looked like the stir would bring trouble for Fadnavis, but he sailed through with a quota formula for Marathas outside the OBC reservation.
Although Fadnavis finished his five-year term, ending in 2019, he was made to be the deputy for Shinde for more than two years, despite the BJP being the senior partner in the Mahayuti.
In the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly election, the BJP had pinned its hopes on Devendra Fadnavis’s Maratha outreach, believing it would work in their favour and secure them a second consecutive term in power.
Devendra Fadnavis even offered to resign from his deputy CM post in June, taking responsibility for the setback suffered by the BJP in Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha election. Fadnavis did not even shy from putting forward Maratha leader Eknath Shinde’s name as the CM during the campaign.
Now that the Brahmin leader has emerged as one of the brightest stars of the BJP-led Mahayuti’s sweep in Maharashtra, there’s considerable chatter about Fadnavis’ elevation.
“Devendra Fadnavis is the frontrunner now. That is the best way to describe the situation,” India Today TV’s Consulting Editor, Rajdeep Sardesai, said about the chief ministerial post as results poured in.
Eknath Shinde may be the face of the Mahayuti campaign in Maharashtra, but let’s be honest, Devendra Fadnavis was the mastermind behind the alliance’s landslide victory. While Shinde has carved out his own space as a leader, it’s Fadnavis who has been an architect of the coalition’s success story.
The landslide victory in Maharashtra in this Assembly election suggests that Maharashtrians cutting across caste lines voted for the BJP and its Mahayuti partners.
Which brings us to the big question: Will Devendra Fadnavis, the Brahmin leader and the brain behind the Mahayuti’s success, re-claim the CM chair this time? Or will he, once again, be his own roadblock in the race against Eknath Shinde?